National scan, inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. monthly

1. National scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:

Month | Sales |

(units) | |

Feb | 19 |

Mar | 18 |

Apr | 17 |

May | 20 |

Jun | 19 |

Jul | 22 |

Aug | 20 |

- Forecast September sales volume using the naïve approach.

- Forecast September sales volume using a linear equation. a=17.43, b = 0.46.

- Forecast September sales volume using a five-month moving average

- Forecast September sales volume using a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.

- Forecast September sales volume using Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a
**March**forecast of 19.

2, A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecast to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant (Alpha) of .2 is used.

a.Prepare a forecast for September.

b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.

3. A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.

*F*_{t}* *=80+14*t*

Where

*F*_{t}* *Annual forecast in sales (bottles)

t= 0 corresponds to 1990

a. Predict annual sales for the year 2006 using the equation.

4.The manager of travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows: